Domestic Ethanol Supply Situation at the Beginning of 2024 and Market Forecast Before and After the Spring Festival

In January 2024, China's edible and industrial ethanol output was about 503,240 tons, down 50,260 tons from the previous month, and the output of edible and industrial ethanol declined. Fuel ethanol production fluctuated little, with fuel ethanol output at 318,500 tonnes in January, an increase of 200 tonnes from the previous month. Among them, the start of corn ethanol in Northeast China was 83.99%, and the output was 288,750 tons, a decrease of 3,650 tons from the previous month (the equipment of some enterprises in Inner Mongolia was shut down), and the cassava ethanol in East China was 37.56%, with an output of about 71,550 tons, a decrease of 26,450 tons from the previous month. The output of coal-based ethanol in January was about 53,940 tons, a decrease of 11,060 tons from the previous month.

It is expected that the domestic ethanol price trend will be stable in the short term. Corn ethanol enterprises in Northeast China were in normal production near the Spring Festival, but at present, the logistics are gradually on holiday, the downstream stocking is nearing the end, and the market is about to enter a state of stagnation. The orders at the early stage in Henan continue to be shipped, waiting for the company's device dynamics. In the last round of stocking before the holiday for some chemical companies in East China, the price remained stable, and some ethyl acetate factories had shutdown plans during the Spring Festival. Orders for fuel ethanol were shipped, and prices remained stable. Some refineries are nearing the end of pre-holiday stocking, and the purchase volume has been signed during the Spring Festival, and the price remains high during the Spring Festival due to the impact of transportation and logistics, but the current purchase price is relatively weak.