Analysis of Domestic Ethanol Downstream Consumption in 2023

In 2023, the main consumption of ethanol in China was concentrated in the chemical industry, followed by edible. The chemical industry mainly includes ethyl acetate, acetamine, acetaldehyde, ethyl acrylate, methyl ethyl carbonate, flame retardant, sodium ethoxide, ink, pesticide intermediates, pharmaceutical intermediates, daily chemicals, flavors and fragrances, etc. In terms of consumption, liquor is the mainstay, and food is added. Among them, the main representative of chemical consumption is ethyl acetate, and there is basically no obvious off-peak season. From January to December, the average operating rate of ethyl acetate was about 47.45%, and a total of 1.03 million tons of ethanol was consumed. In June, the start of ethyl acetate reached the lowest point of 42.30%, and some enterprise equipment began to be overhauled, and the industry started to decline. With the development of new energy, methyl ethyl carbonate is a new downstream consumption point for ethanol, and the production capacity of methyl ethyl carbonate was expanded significantly in 2023, with a total production capacity of 1.556 million tons/year, but due to the loss of downstream production and the low enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials, the methyl ethyl carbonate industry would not start at a high level, and the average start of methyl ethyl carbonate in 2023 was about 30%.

From January to December 2023, the output decline of the liquor industry narrowed, reaching 549,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and from January to December, the output of liquor by enterprises above designated size was 4.492 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%. In 2023, the total output of liquor will show a slight contraction, and so far, China's liquor production has declined for the seventh consecutive year.

In terms of liquor, the demand for liquor is obvious in the off-peak season, and the summer is basically the off-season for liquor consumption, and the demand begins to rise in September, and the consumption in the month before the large-scale holiday increases significantly. In the post-epidemic era, the domestic economy is recovering slowly, people are conservative in consumption, and the demand for liquor is also declining, and it is expected that the consumption of ethanol in liquor was about 700,000 tons/year in 2023.

In 2023, the largest downstream proportion was the chemical industry, which accounted for 86.60% of the country's consumption, and the chemical industry would mainly be ethyl acetate and 13.40% was of liquor. The total production capacity of chemical ethyl acetate was 3.68 million tons, the total production capacity of ethylamine was about 200,000 tons, the total production capacity of methyl ethyl carbonate was more than 1.31 million tons, and there were about 1,000 liquor enterprises.

In 2023, ethanol consumption chemical areas would be mainly concentrated in East China, which would mainly be the consumption of ethyl acetate, ethylamine, ethyl acrylate, methyl ethyl carbonate, pesticide intermediates, etc.; for North China, the consumption of would mainly be chemicals and food additives; the southwest region is mainly for the consumption of liquor, a small amount of chemicals; the northeast region is mainly for the consumption of liquor, part of the supply is sent to East China and South China for chemical and daily chemical consumption; in South China, it is mainly for the consumption of chemical ethyl acetate, daily chemical consumption, ink printing and dyeing.