PVC: Talking about the stockpiling situation in the domestic spot and future market before the holiday

Weekend market analysis: the mainstream transaction price of the domestic PVC market is temporarily stable, and the ex-factory price of PVC of upstream production enterprises has not made any significantly adjustments, and most merchants have reported that although there are quotations, the signing of a generation of contracts has been suspended. PVC futures are closed on Sunday, so the domestic spot market lacks spot pricing offers, and the fixed-price offer is not positive, and some traders began to take holidays one after another, and some fixed-price offers delayed to Friday, with few transactions and offers, and the spot supply in the market is scarce. The enthusiasm for spot procurement for downstream enterprises is low, and the trading and investment atmosphere in the spot market is relatively bleak. On Friday, the future price of the nights market opened slightly higher, and the overall fluctuation range of the night market was between 5807-5848 points, but there was a certain reduction of more than 13,000 hands, and some funds were withdrew from the market. And it is expected that in the next week's trading day, the volume of market positions will continue to be reduced, and the market will hedge risks. On the whole, the weekend market presents a holiday pattern, especially the spot market will witness a situation of increasing price while without market

Comprehensive price list of each region: CNY/Ton

Analysis of the spot and future markets: As time goes by, the Spring Festival is quietly approaching, and the market performance of the two markets in January and early February (before the holiday) is weak. First of all, the daily price adjustment of the two markets is relatively small, and the lowest price is constantly tentatively confirmed, and secondly, the spot market, especially the downstream demand-side product enterprises, began to enter the holiday mode after mid-January, and the spot market transactions gradually became lighter. The futures market has fluctuated between 5754-5970 since January with a total of 216 points, and began to show continuous position reduction in late January, and funds were withdrew from the market to wait and see, but after the futures price rose to the high range, there was a certain increase in positions in early February, on the one hand, there were hedging orders, and on the other hand, the short-term speculative position appeared.

The futures price began to test the low bottom space of 5750-5800 range on January 10, and some merchants in the spot market also carried out the corresponding stockpiling behavior at the corresponding spot price. Although there is a consensus between the two markets and weak fundamentals, the space for the market to continue to decline is narrowing, so some merchants are hoarding goods during this time period. However, in late January and early February, after the two markets weakened again, the spot market began to have different mentality, and some merchants believed that it would form a larger cumulative performance during the pre-holiday and Spring Festival time, so it would still perform poorly in the corresponding time period even during the holiday, and the two markets do not have a good upside premise, so during this period, the intermediaries did not see increased hoarding behavior.

Post-market outlook forecast: the current futures market performance is weak, the pre-holiday price was even forced back to the low range, from a technical point of view, after the holiday, even if the external disk was not unexpectedly stimulated during the holiday period, it is expected that it will continue the trend of the low level adjustment after the holiday. If the external market fluctuates or manifests itself on the first day after the holiday, in view of the current high inventory and the accumulated inventory during the holiday period, the spot market also needs a certain amount of time to digest after the holiday, and the spot market may still show a trend of narrow adjustment.