PVC monthly report in February 2023: the probability of price decline is large

1月初至春节前这段时间的上涨，依旧是延续之前的交易逻辑，仍旧是需求乐观预期在主导。房地产利好信息不断，比如1月5日人民银行、银保监会发布通知，决定建立首套住房贷款利率政策动态调整机制，新建商品住宅销售价格环比和同比连续3个月均下降的城市，可阶段性维持、下调或取消当地首套住房贷款利率政策下限。1月17日，国务院副总理刘鹤在达沃斯世界经济论坛上表示，房地产业是中国国民经济的支柱产业，巨大的需求潜力将为房地产业发展提供有力支撑，并在世界经济论坛透露当前“保交楼”涉及全国188万居民的2600多个已付款未交付项目。宏观方面，1月中旬中国疫情冲击基本结束，国内消费复苏预期走强，这些乐观预期共同推动PVC的上涨。春节后，PVC累库中性，但库存绝对水平压力很大，连续3个月的预期交易暂告一段落，PVC明显下跌。

The rise in the period from the beginning of January to the Spring Festival is still the continuation of the previous trading logic, and is still dominated by optimistic expectations of demand. The positive information of real estate continues. For example, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice on January 5, deciding to establish a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the interest rate policy of the first set of housing loans. For cities where the sales price of new commercial residential buildings has declined for three consecutive months on a month-on-month basis and year-on-year basis, the lower limit of the local interest rate policy of the first set of housing loans can be maintained, lowered or cancelled in a phased manner. On January 17, Liu He, Vice Premier of the State Council, said at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the real estate industry is the pillar industry of China's national economy, and the huge demand potential will provide strong support for the development of the real estate industry. He also disclosed at the World Economic Forum that the current "guaranteed building" involves more than 2600 unpaid projects of 1.88 million residents in the country. Macroscopically, the impact of the epidemic in China basically ended in mid-January, and the recovery of domestic consumption is expected to strengthen. These optimistic expectations jointly promote the rise of PVC. After the Spring Festival, PVC inventory was neutral, but the absolute level of inventory was under great pressure. The expected transaction for three consecutive months ended temporarily, and PVC fell significantly.

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