Global Feed Market Report: March 2026 – Stability Amidst Divergent Trends

March 11, 2026, 4:43 PM

LYDD-Global

Guide

Highlights at a glance

This analysis examines the divergent trends in China's key feed raw materials in early March 2026. Corn prices maintain firm support with a 5.2% year-over-year increase, driven by reserve procurement and post-holiday demand, while soybean meal shows an 11.7% annual decline due to improved supply. The interaction creates relative stability in compound feed prices, though pig feed shows a slight increase. However, new environmental compliance costs in major provinces are adding substantial overhead for livestock producers. The outlook suggests monitoring grassroots corn sales and South American soybean arrivals, with recommendations emphasizing holistic cost management beyond raw material procurement to address both feed costs and regulatory expenses.

Key Raw Material Analysis

1. Corn: Firm Support and Seasonal Strength

Corn, the primary energy source in animal feed, has maintained a steady to slightly bullish trend in early March 2026.

National Average: The average price stands at 2.45 CNY/kg, holding flat week-on-week but representing a 5.2% increase compared to the same period last year.
Regional Dynamics:
- Production Hubs (Northeast): Prices in the three northeastern provinces remain at 2.28 CNY/kg. As temperatures rise, storage difficulties for grassroots farmers are increasing selling activity, yet strong procurement by reserves (such as Sinograin) is providing a solid price floor.
- Consumption Hubs (South): In major consumption areas like Guangdong, prices are higher at 2.51 CNY/kg, reflecting logistics costs and steady demand from deep-processing enterprises resuming operations post-holiday.
Outlook: Market analysts predict that throughout March, corn spot prices will likely remain stable with a slight bias towards strength. The tightening supply at the grassroots level, combined with restocking needs from processing plants, suggests a high probability of a month-on-month price increase.

2. Soybean Meal: Year-Over-Year Decline

In contrast to corn, soybean meal—the critical protein component—has seen a notable correction.

National Average: The average price is 3.32 CNY/kg, unchanged from the previous week but down 11.7% year-over-year.
Market Drivers: The decline is attributed to improved oil mill operating rates and ample supply before the massive arrival of South American soybeans. For instance, in Jiangxi province, major oil mills reported transaction prices around 3,140–3,180 CNY/ton in early March, with some daily adjustments downward as inventory levels stabilize.
Outlook: With oil mills returning to normal capacity and downstream feed enterprises primarily executing existing contracts rather than aggressively restocking, significant upside momentum for soybean meal prices appears limited in the short term.

Compound Feed and Livestock Impact

The interplay between rising corn costs and falling soybean meal prices has resulted in a relatively stable composite feed market, though specific categories vary:

Pig Feed: The average price for fattening pig compound feed rose slightly by 0.3% week-on-week to 3.38 CNY/kg. Despite the marginal increase, it remains 1.2% lower than last year, largely thanks to cheaper protein inputs.
Poultry Feed: Prices for broiler and layer feed have remained generally flat, mirroring the stability in raw material costs.

However, feed cost is only one part of the equation for farmers in 2026. The industry is facing heightened pressure from environmental compliance costs. Stricter regulations implemented in late 2025 across key provinces (Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Fujian) require significant investment in manure treatment facilities. For a standard farm with an annual output of 10,000 pigs, environmental upgrades now cost millions of yuan, adding substantial operational overhead that offsets some of the savings gained from lower soybean meal prices.

Market Outlook and Strategic Recommendations

Looking ahead to the remainder of Q1 2026:

Corn Volatility: Stakeholders should monitor grassroots selling speeds. If warm weather accelerates farmer sales, it could temporarily ease prices, but strong reserve buying will likely prevent any sharp drops.
Soybean Meal Ceiling: The window for low-cost protein may narrow as South American harvest logistics unfold. While a surge is not immediately expected, the downside risk is limited.
Cost Management: For livestock producers, the focus must shift from purely raw material procurement to holistic cost control. Optimizing feed conversion ratios and managing the new environmental compliance expenditures will be critical for maintaining margins, especially given the concurrent dip in live pig and poultry product prices observed in the first week of March.

Conclusion:
The March 2026 feed market presents a "mixed bag" scenario. While the year-over-year drop in soybean meal offers a buffer, the structural rise in corn prices and the new baseline of environmental costs suggest that the era of low-cost production is over. Industry participants are advised to maintain prudent inventory strategies and focus on operational efficiency to navigate this transitional period.

Global Feed Market Update: March 2026 Trends and Price Analysis

Global Dairy Industry Update: Trade Shifts and Technological Evolution in Early 2026