PET: the Market goes Up and Down and has Entered the Closing Stage
Introduction: Since mid-January, the domestic PET industry market has ushered in a wave of fluctuating and climbing. Driven by the market pulling atmosphere, the enthusiasm of the downstream replenishment at the end of the year has increased, and the production and sales of enterprises have rebounded. Approaching the end of the year, the PET raw material market has weakened, the terminal stocking has come to an end, and the market is about to enter the end of the year.
Since the 12th, the PET raw material-PTA market has continued to strengthen. The international crude oil market rose, the domestic commodity market atmosphere improved, with the support of high cost coupled with the capital side, the market was promoted, and the PTA futures market fluctuated and rose. Hengli's 2.5 million ton PTA equipment was unplanned for a short stop on the 25th, and market supply reduced and market mentality boosted. The spot price difference was strong, traders and PET factories concentrated on rigid need and replenishment, and the transaction in the far month has improved. By the 29th, the PTA spot market in East China rose to around 6,025 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the PTA market weakened slightly as the supply and demand side of the market weakened. Buying orders focus more on rigid need, and the overall trading turned weak.
The ethylene glycol market, another raw material for PET, continues to be in a strong and volatile market. The rise in the international crude oil market was boosted, the focus of negotiations in the ethylene glycol market continued to rise slightly, and the spot market price gradually refreshed a new high this year. Affected by the news of overseas plant shutdown and production reduction, the confidence of market bulls increased, the ports inventory of ethylene glycol continued to decline, and the supply side formed a good support for the market. The downstream PET load fell slightly, and the market was expected to weaken under the expectation of weaker demand with greater upward resistance. By the end of the month, the quotation in East China rose to 4710 yuan/ton, and the real transaction was weak.
With the rise in the market price of PET’s raw material-PTA and ethylene glycol, the support of cost side to the market has been strengthened, and the offer of PET manufacturers has been raised, and the market offer has risen too; PET factories took the opportunity to increase sales and shipment, stimulating the downstream replenishment at the end of the year, and the market production and sales rebounded. With the continuous rise in market prices, the enthusiasm of the downstream to follow up the rise at the end of the month has decreased.
At the end of the year, the downstream PET load continued to fall, and the current PET operation has dropped to around 82%, down 6 percentage points from the previous high, and the PET load is still expected to decline in the later period. Terminal textile and weaving manufactures had increasing holidays at the end of the year, the current weaving comprehensive production has dropped to a low level near forty percent, most enterprises have stopped production and entered into holiday, raw material procurement gradually ended, and it is expected to gradually return to the market after late February, market demand weakened.
Recently, the international crude oil market has remained high, and the cost side has promoted the market. PET raw material-PTA and ethylene glycol market driven by the supply and demand side, is expected to witness a narrow range of market adjustment, polyester raw material end support, polyester market offer will mainly be slightly adjusted with the cost. With off-season atmosphere deepened, the terminal side mainly focus on sporadic replenishment, the market production and sales are very bleak. It is expected that the polyester market will enter the closing stage of price and no market next week. In the later stage, pay close attention to the changes in the raw material market and the supply and demand side of PET itself.
