Corn Continues to Seek Direction Amidst Fluctuations

Overseas Market: For the week ending April 10, 2026, global corn prices mostly declined. This was primarily due to bearish supply and demand data from the USDA, smooth corn planting progress, and a sharp drop in international crude oil futures. However, robust U.S. corn export sales have limited the downside. As of last Friday (April 10), the CBOT May corn futures contract closed at $4.41 per bushel, a 2.5% weekly decrease. The spot offer for No. 2 yellow corn from the U.S. Gulf for May shipment was $5.2900 per bushel, down 1.7%.

Spot Market: In China's main production areas, as the spring planting season approaches, farmers are increasing their sales of high-moisture grain. Some traders are also selling to secure profits, leading to an increase in market circulation. Inventory levels at consuming enterprises are rising, weakening restocking demand. Furthermore, the majority of central reserve corn auctions are being sold at a discount, indicating that the policy-driven price support is diminishing. Consequently, spot prices have continued their weak downward trend, with a weekly decline of 0.24%.

Futures Market: Domestic corn futures prices fluctuated this week. Trading activity in the physical market remained subdued, with no signs of improvement in overall sentiment. The increased supply of wheat at auctions and expectations of auctions for aged rice have weighed on spot corn prices. However, medium-term cost expectations and geopolitical tensions have bolstered bullish sentiment in the futures market. As of last Friday (April 10), the C2605 contract opened at 2359 yuan/ton, closed at 2379 yuan/ton, settled at 2376 yuan/ton, with a high of 2386 yuan/ton and a low of 2355 yuan/ton, representing a weekly increase of 1.49%.

Outlook: Uncertainties remain following the U.S.-Iran conflict, with international oil prices maintaining high-level fluctuations. The potential for a reduction in U.S. corn planting area this year provides some support for CBOT corn prices. As the Northern Hemisphere's spring planting season begins, market focus is increasingly shifting towards weather and planting prospects, suggesting heightened short-term volatility.

In China, the continuous release of policy grain, with the wheat auction volume increasing to 800,000 tons, and dense arrivals of imported grains in the second quarter are expected to increase the volume of feed substitutes. High corn prices are dampening downstream purchasing enthusiasm, weakening demand-side support. In the short term, the tight supply-demand balance is expected to ease, with persistent supply-side pressure leading to weak futures prices.

However, underlying demand remains, geopolitical conflicts persist, and policy measures aim to stabilize prices. The corn market retains medium-to-long-term resilience, with expectations for a price recovery.